Western Hemisphere Analysis

The Economist has published the early results here. Polls were taken between 21 September and 23 October 2009, so they incorporate much of the events in Honduras, although not the election.

Initial thoughts:
1) Both Colombia and Ecuador saw surprising and troubling drops in support for democracy over other types of government. Both countries saw a 13 point drop from last year’s numbers to well below 50%. I’m going to have to think about what changed in the last year in those countries that would cause that shift.

2) El Salvador saw a welcome 18 point rise in support for democracy since 2008. It’s the Funes effect.

3) Venezuela remains with the highest support of “democracy” in the region. Why? Because both Chavistas and opposition believe they stand on the side of democracy. The polarization leads to increased support of democracy, but perhaps two different definitions of that word as well.

4) I’m going to guess a similar psychology is occurring with the boost in support for democracy in Honduras. Both the supporters of Micheletti and Zelaya believe they are the true representation of democracy and tell pollsters that.

5) This should scare you: “61% of those polled in Brazil, 58% in Mexico and 42% in the region agreed that the army should remove a president if he violates the constitution”

6) The number of people who believe a “market economy” is best increased in Venezuela and Argentina, decreased in Colombia. I’d call that the “grass is greener on the other side” effect.

7) Obama’s approval is among the highest in the region, confirming the recent Gallup results. “The advent of Mr Obama has boosted his country’s standing in the region: 74% of respondents had a favourable opinion of the United States, up from 58% last year and the highest figure since the polls began. Nevertheless, more respondents now see Brazil as the most influential country in the region, ahead of the United States and Venezuela.”

You can download the full results here.