Western Hemisphere Analysis

News and analysis from the Western Hemisphere. Currently in Beta.

The State Department is promoting what they’ve done in 2009 in terms of the Western Hemisphere.

This “fact sheet” looks at three areas, which largely match the Obama campaign promises on the region.

A blog post by Arturo Valenzuela hits on 11 points related directly or tangentially to the administration’s diplomatic efforts in the hemisphere.

boz US Foreign Policy

Credit to AS/COA for giving me the idea to work on this. I’ll be building this out over the coming weeks.

boz Elections

The Economist has published the early results here. Polls were taken between 21 September and 23 October 2009, so they incorporate much of the events in Honduras, although not the election.

Initial thoughts:
1) Both Colombia and Ecuador saw surprising and troubling drops in support for democracy over other types of government. Both countries saw a 13 point drop from last year’s numbers to well below 50%. I’m going to have to think about what changed in the last year in those countries that would cause that shift.

2) El Salvador saw a welcome 18 point rise in support for democracy since 2008. It’s the Funes effect.

3) Venezuela remains with the highest support of “democracy” in the region. Why? Because both Chavistas and opposition believe they stand on the side of democracy. The polarization leads to increased support of democracy, but perhaps two different definitions of that word as well.

4) I’m going to guess a similar psychology is occurring with the boost in support for democracy in Honduras. Both the supporters of Micheletti and Zelaya believe they are the true representation of democracy and tell pollsters that.

5) This should scare you: “61% of those polled in Brazil, 58% in Mexico and 42% in the region agreed that the army should remove a president if he violates the constitution”

6) The number of people who believe a “market economy” is best increased in Venezuela and Argentina, decreased in Colombia. I’d call that the “grass is greener on the other side” effect.

7) Obama’s approval is among the highest in the region, confirming the recent Gallup results. “The advent of Mr Obama has boosted his country’s standing in the region: 74% of respondents had a favourable opinion of the United States, up from 58% last year and the highest figure since the polls began. Nevertheless, more respondents now see Brazil as the most influential country in the region, ahead of the United States and Venezuela.”

You can download the full results here.

boz Polls

Western Hemisphere Analysis is collecting news, analysis and opinion on Latin America and the Caribbean. It is owned and operated by James Bosworth, who also writes Bloggings by Boz.

I can be contacted at boz AT westernhemisphereanalysis dot com

boz About

The Inter-American Dialogue released this report [PDF] on improving journalism in Latin America and reforming the government’s relationship with the media.

In January 2008, the Inter-American Dialogue organized an intensive, full-day workshop to review a set of challenges facing the media in Latin America and the Caribbean and to begin to think about ways to enable the press to be a more positive force for democracy in the region. The conference was specifically concerned with four issues: government laws and regulations regarding the media, concentration of media ownership, indirect censorship, and the nexus of media responsibility and the quality of democracy.

boz Reports censorship, media

Last week, the Wilson Center released a new report on a potential US-Mexico strategic partnership. Within, they make a number of recommendations for the new US administration in the areas of security, economic integration, migration and border issues.

boz Countries, Mexico, Reports Economics, illicit trafficking, Mexico, migration, Security, US Foreign Policy

The Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy, led by three former Latin American presidents, released a statement [PDF] outlining their vision of the drug war and how they believe developed nations should go after the problem.

The commission makes five recommendations:

1. Change the status of addicts from drug buyers in the illegal market to that of patients cared for in the public health system
2. Evaluate from a public health standpoint and on the basis of the most advanced medical science the convenience of decriminalizing the possession of cannabis for personal use
3. Reduce consumption through campaigns of information and prevention that can be understood and accepted by young people, who account for the largest contingent of users.
4. Redirect repressive strategies to the unrelenting fight against organized crime
5. Reframe the strategies of repression against the cultivation of illicit drugs

boz Reports, US Foreign Policy Brazil, Colombia, drugs, illicit trafficking, Mexico, US Foreign Policy